From the desk of Johnny Fincioen
Sat, 2011-06-25 12:38"
The Brussels Journal
Excerpt:
The moment of truth approaches. Obama needs more money urgently. This end of July all the (borrowed) money of the Federal Government is spent. The law sets the debt ceiling at a bit over 14 trillion dollars. Obama is unable to borrow more. He can’t push the US deeper in debt. Very soon, he won’t be able to pay for current expenses. That’s why he’s asking the Congress to raise the debt ceiling with at least two trillion dollars. The Republicans, in control of the House, accept to raise the ceiling under two conditions. First: only if the government is ready to cut spending over the next 10 years with a sum at least equal to the amount of the raise. Second: if taxes are not raised.
On Thursday, the negotiations collapsed between Obama and his fellow Democrats on one side, and the Republicans in Congress on the other side. Reason: the Democrats are only willing to cut some spending if they are allowed to raise the taxes. This deadlock obliges Obama to take initiative, to formulate a proposal. But, he hates making a first move. He prefers to ‘lead from behind’. He likes others to do the hard work. Recent examples of this attitude: Libya, Obamacare, etc.
Hard choices
If Obama and the Republican Congress don’t reach an agreement, Obama will have to make some hard choices...
Who Will Blink?
Since all options in the case of a non-raised debt ceiling are rather disastrous for the US, almost all pundits and observers believe the ceiling will be raised. The only question is: who will blink?..
My prediction
At the last possible moment, end of July, Obama appears on TV to state his will to cut
Read More
Showing posts with label US Financial Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Financial Crisis. Show all posts
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Monday, March 9, 2009
The credit crunch tent city which has returned to haunt America
By Paul Thompson
Last updated at 12:35 PM on 06th March 2009
A century and a half ago it was at the centre of the Californian gold rush, with hopeful prospectors pitching their tents along the banks of the American River.
Today, tents are once again springing up in the city of Sacramento. But this time it is for people with no hope and no prospects.
With America's economy in freefall and its housing market in crisis, California's state capital has become home to a tented city for the dispossessed.
Rich and poor: The tents and other makeshift homes have sprung up in the shadow of Sacramento's skyscrapers
Last updated at 12:35 PM on 06th March 2009
A century and a half ago it was at the centre of the Californian gold rush, with hopeful prospectors pitching their tents along the banks of the American River.
Today, tents are once again springing up in the city of Sacramento. But this time it is for people with no hope and no prospects.
With America's economy in freefall and its housing market in crisis, California's state capital has become home to a tented city for the dispossessed.
Rich and poor: The tents and other makeshift homes have sprung up in the shadow of Sacramento's skyscrapers
Shanty town: The tent city is already home to dozens of people, many left without jobs because of the credit crunch
Those who have lost their jobs and homes and have nowhere else to go are constructing makeshift shelters on the site, which covers several acres.
As many as 50 people a week are turning up and the authorities estimate that the tent city is now home to more than 1,200 people.
More...
The credit crunch tent city which has returned to haunt America
Obamavilles In America - Barky's Shantytowns
U.S. jobless figures hit 25-year high with 651,000 people laid off in one month
Houses more affordable than any time in last six year after 20% slump
Friday, March 6, 2009
What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)
Posted by Karl Denninger in Editorial at 09:57
The Market Ticker
Thursday, March 5. 2009
Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)
All pension funds, private and public, are done.
If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations.
They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
Government debt costs will ramp.
This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead
as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months
Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year.
The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.
The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.
The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.
It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.
Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings. You may be reading this too late for it to matter.
In 3 minutes, what's coming.....
What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)
Also read :
Gateway Pundit
Economic Disaster Continues-- Dow Tanks 4.1%... Jim Cramer Blasts Obama Team
Larry Sinclair
ITS TIME TO MAKE A RUN ON THE BANKS
Fed Refuses To Tell Where $2 Trillion Went
Bank Woes Drain Deposit Insurance Fund
8.3 Million US Mortgages Upside Down
Kiss The Banks Off - Refocus On The People
The Market Ticker
Thursday, March 5. 2009
Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)
All pension funds, private and public, are done.
If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations.
They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
Government debt costs will ramp.
This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead
as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months
Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year.
The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.
The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.
The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.
It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.
Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings. You may be reading this too late for it to matter.
In 3 minutes, what's coming.....
What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)
Also read :
Gateway Pundit
Economic Disaster Continues-- Dow Tanks 4.1%... Jim Cramer Blasts Obama Team
Larry Sinclair
ITS TIME TO MAKE A RUN ON THE BANKS
Fed Refuses To Tell Where $2 Trillion Went
Bank Woes Drain Deposit Insurance Fund
8.3 Million US Mortgages Upside Down
Kiss The Banks Off - Refocus On The People
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